I feel a Peak Oil blog post coming on.

I think everyone thinks I’m nuts. Lately I’ve been reading pages from these reports:

(News articles referencing report, then URL of report)

Lloyd’s 360 Risk Assesment on Sustainable Energy Security (1, 2) and the United States Joint Forces Command – Joint Operating Environment Report 2010. (0,1,2)

I say pages; I haven’t read both of them cover to cover, for that I apologize for not having a full picture of what they both say on all topics, namely all energy sources and how our use of them will evolve.

Both reports are nothing new, I found them by researching peak oil, since I learned of the subject through a video lecture I watched by Mike Ruppert (the basis for the interview-pic that is “Collapse”)

After watching it and reading anything I could about the subject (there’s no shortage; Energy Bulletin, ASPO, EIA Reports, DOE Reports, even investment reports) Once that happens, I admit, you start to see everything through the lens of energy. Every subject then takes on a hue associated with energy, how we get it and how we’re going to get it.

As much as we hate to acknowledge it, oil may infact be the biggest curse on some producing, exoporting nations and perhaps a veiled curse on those that become so addicted to its EROEI that easily led us to build modernity upon it.

If you have 45 minutes watch this video:

There is an awful lot of commotion about peak oil. From everywhere except where it counts. If all we hear about the concept is from energy forcasters, academics and “conspiricy theorists” then the information is not reaching the right people. Al Jazeera is a far stretch for most Americans to even consider as a regularly tolerable news outlet, so the above segment is likely to have little impact in helping to spread the word where it counts.

The Transition Movement

There is one refuge, one bastion of hope for those who realize the end of cheap oil is going to have less than a rosey effect on our industrialized, mechanized and physically – connected by long supply chains – distant society. The transition movement aims to re-localize economic factors, food production, banking. Brining people closer together to bring a community approach to dealing with a possible shortfall in the lifeblood of many nations.

I think the Transition movement is a great organization, a great notion that gives many people the inspiration and structure to come to grips with their own “energy descent plan”

Where I differ in agreeing with this approach is purely a matter of pessemisim on my part. As irrational and immature as it may be, I think that any effort to educate people about what might be around the corner has a negligable success rate. We are 6.8 billion strong. What got us here ? Cheap and abundant candyfloss ?

What makes anyone think we’ll all be ok ? We’ll just make sure everyone has a garden, electric car and solar panels ?  There is a phrase I keep hearing again and again from people who take PO as gospel, and those who have many doubts; “You can only do what you feel is right, only take your own steps to mold your own life, you can’t tell others how to live”

Oh, ok then, can I have a crack at telling them how to live after we have an oil crash then ? I’m sure they’ll be just as receptive as they’re spewing manufactured hate at muslim rent-a-terrorists as we invade another oil rich middle eastern country.

As horrible as it may be I have absolutely zero faith in anyone to come to terms with the concept that we might start having an oil supply shortfall who A. Drives a vehicle, not for work purposes (commuting doesn’t count) whos dry weight approaches 4,000lbs or B. Thinks shale, ANWR or the gulf of mexico will quench our thirst when any geolicical survey will tell us they will be (expensive) blips in production. C. Thinks that cheap oil is a right, perhaps divinely bestowed on us ? (these people DO exist) C. Republicans (yeah, B and C are pretty much the same.)

Our Response

While I’m not saying that the end of the world is coming, there will be some great community responses, some underway right now, but there will be some not-so great responses. We think the economy is bad now, we think food is expensive now ? I literally shiver to think about 6 years from now.

After such shocks, people will get the message. But this isn’t like a natural disaster, it isn’t like an earth quake, it’s not sudden, and its not immidiately apparent that it will contine. I quote “there where gas lines in the 70’s it will happen again” and presumably said with the amount of derision I could register, they’ll magically dissapear again acorrding to this person. (who purchased a Honda Crosstour, alright I’m an elitist car nazi, but tell me that car isn’t 100% fail ? its like an accord that ate all the pies.)

I’m scared, am I crazy ? Certainly lots of people’s response to this knowledge will be to immidiately grab a gun and whole up in a cabin far away from anyone, lots of responses to this knowledge, whether before or during such a period will be inadequet, irrational and dangerous. It’s those people that scare me; the ones who will blame everything except the only thing we can blame: ourselves.

What will be the various responses ? each to their own and only time will tell. I just prefer to be aware beforehand.

Still scared. Megan says I should write about our puppies instead. I think she might be right.

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